European Union environment ministers approved a revised 2040 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target on Wednesday, after marathon negotiations that stretched into the early hours. The decision comes just ahead of the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil, on November 10, and establishes a legal framework linking the EU’s short- and long-term climate goals.
The agreement acts as a bridge between the 2030 and 2050 targets, keeping the EU on track for its long-term aim of climate neutrality by 2050. Ministers also confirmed the official plan for the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), required under the Paris Agreement. That plan sets a non-legally binding goal to reduce emissions by between 66.25 and 72.5 percent below 1990 levels. This NDC will feed directly into discussions at COP30 next week. The compromise formalizes the ambition to cut net GHG emissions by 90 percent by 2040. But getting the necessary qualified majority required significant flexibilities for member states, which some observers call a watering down of the original proposal.
EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the domestic target is effectively 85 percent, while the “legally binding headline 2040 target” remains 90 percent. The remaining 5 percent would be offset using international carbon credits, which the industry can employ to balance domestic emissions. The agreement also allows for a possible extra 5 percent of credits if the EU falls behind its trajectory.
The concessions are meant to ease member states’ concerns about competitiveness and social balance. German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider stressed the need to balance environmental protection with economic policy, especially given pressures from global competitors. Romania also flagged the need to account for increased defense spending due to current geopolitical tensions.
Critics, however, warn that the new flexibilities may slow the EU’s transition. Environmental groups argue that relying on international carbon credits doesn’t reduce pollution; it just shifts it to lower-income countries. Stientje van Veldhoven of the World Resources Institute said while the 90 percent target is ambitious, the EU must reach the top end of the 2035 NDC range (72.5 percent) to stay aligned with the 1.5°C global goal. Falling short would create an “unmanageable gap” in emissions reductions. Four member states, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, opposed the deal, fearing harm to energy-intensive industries. The new carbon market (ETS-2) launch was also pushed from 2027 to 2028 as part of the compromise.
With the domestic position now solid, the EU will go to COP30 prepared to present a united stance. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen aims to use the summit to push for global action on ambition gaps and speed up the clean energy transition. Domestically, the next step moves to the European Parliament, where lawmakers must define their position on the 2040 target and negotiate with the Council before the target becomes legally binding.
