JURIST Belarus contributor Katsiaryna Vasilionak is a Belarusian law student in the International Law and European Union Law program at the European Humanities University, Vilnius, Lithuania. The text of this dispatch has been lightly edited to preserve the author’s voice.

The war in Ukraine has lasted more than two weeks now. More than 700 civilians have been killed according to official data. Ukrainian sources have put the number of Ukrainian military deaths at over 1000.

Russia invaded the territory of Ukraine on the morning of February 24, calling it a «liberation operation». They planned to liberate Ukraine from the “Nazis”. Russian troops violated the borders of a sovereign state from three directions: the East, Crimea and from my country, the Republic of Belarus. I think it is possible to understand the eastern direction and Crimea, which was occupied by Russia in 2014, but no one can understand how Belarus allowed Russian troops to attack Ukraine from its side.

Speaking about this, I would like to recall [President] Lukashenka’s words, which he uttered in an interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon in 2020: “It will never happen that some troops attack Kiev from Belarus. Never.” Of course, Lukashenka has never liked to fulfill his promises, but this is not the first time he has said such words.

What led to Russian troops freely crossing the border between Ukraine and Belarus on the morning of February 24?

In my opinion, the point of no return was the presidential elections in Belarus in 2020. Lukashenka lost, but he was able to retain his power not only thanks to brutal violence against Belarusians, but also thanks to the support of Putin, who continued to recognize his power and give loans for the maintenance of the dictatorial regime. So debts, as you know, should be paid either with money or with actions. That is why a global catastrophe which was called “Allied Resolve – 2022” occurred on February 10, 2022. Yes, I’m talking about the joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus, which took place on the territory of Belarus in February. The Russian side said that their troops would return to Russia immediately after the military exercises, but then it was said that they would remain on the territory of Belarus until there were reasons to leave for Russia.

But they didn’t return to Russia. They attacked Ukraine on the morning of February 24, while all the inhabitants were sleeping, just as Hitler did in June 1941.

What role does Belarus have in the war now? First of all, we must understand that despite the absence to this point of Belarusian troops on the territory of Ukraine, Belarus is already an aggressor because it violated international law. It allowed an attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, launched several ballistic missiles, and continues to justify Russia.

In my opinion, we could have waited for the Belarusian troops to join the Russian army after the Referendum in Belarus, but this hasn’t yet happened. Lukashenko was able to persuade Zelensky to hold talks on the territory of Belarus. We don’t know how he managed to do it, but Lukashenka, who was ignored by the whole Europe and the United States, is now acting as a peacemaker who is “trying to prevent the third World War”. I think that in such a situation, the deployment of Belarusian troops on the Ukrainian territory and joining the Russian army will be canceled. Of course, Lukashenka continues to support Russia.

For Belarus, there are three options going forward:

1. Negotiations on the territory of Belarus between Ukraine and Russia will continue and will end with an agreement and the end of the war. In this case, Lukashenka will be further strengthened. Europe and the United States will start a dialogue with him. Perhaps this is the best option for Lukashenka, for Belarus, and for the whole world.

2. Negotiations will not yield results and the Belarusian army will be forced to join the Russian occupiers In Ukraine. Belarus has already received part of the sanctions that were imposed on Russia. But in this case, Belarus will face complete isolation, disconnection from SWIFT and a destroyed economy inside the country.

3. Lukashenka needs money for the maintenance of the regime. Putin is the only person who agrees to give a loan to Lukashenka. That’s why Lukashenka flew to meet the President of Russia a few days ago. However, we must understand that Putin can say at any moment: “I will give you a loan if your army joins mine”. And it will definitely happen.

Thus, Belarus really has two ways now. The first is to wait and provide a platform for dialogue between states, the second is to join the Russian army and become an outcast for the whole world for a long time. But civilians, being on the territory of Belarus, are already under pressure. Our territory is occupied by invaders while the whole world asks us to go to rallies against participation in this terrible war and not to let our military go to war in Ukraine. I think we’re doing – and will do – everything to counter this. The Belarusian people don’t agree with Lukashenka’s decisions, we condemn Putin’s decisions, we are against the participation of our troops in this war. We are against this war.