The COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on developed and developing economies alike. While the major international focus has shifted towards restoring normalcy, a blind eye has been turned to the growing instability in the global political sphere. Whether they be the recent tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh Region or the fierce simmering between Iran and Israel, the international community has remained silent spectators. Though the situation in these cases has largely remained un-escalated, the same is not true for the growing conflict in the African nation of Ethiopia.
The dispute which began as a federal structure disruption between the northern Tigray region and Ethiopia has quickly escalated to a full-fledged armed conflict between Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Ethiopia, and Eritrea. The situation has worsened to a state wherein TPLF has launched rocket attacks at the Eritrean capital. In a retaliatory measure, the Ethiopian federal government has declared an emergency and disbanded communication in the turbulent Tigray region heralding a major political crisis and refugee exodus. In light of the ongoing armed conflict, this article aims to explore the political and social factors at play while juxtaposing the same with the existing humanitarian crisis in the region before suggesting potential solutions for de-escalation.
The roots of the present political standoff can be traced back to Ethiopia’s system of government, which in 1994 adopted a federal parliamentary system ensuring devolution of substantial autonomy to the 10 ethnically delineated administrative regions. TPLF, the leader of a four-party coalition that governed Ethiopia since 1991 when a military regime was ousted from power, was the most influential party in setting up this federal system. Under the new leadership, Ethiopia attained stability, but concerns were raised regarding the democratic spirit of the coalition. Resultantly, the culmination of furious protests saw government reshuffle and appointment of Mr. Abiy Ahmed (belonging to the dominant Oromi community) as the prime minister. The new elections led to the liberalization of politics and the removal of key Tigrayan government leaders accused of corruption and repression. Much to the disdain of TPLF, Mr. Abiy successfully ended the long-drawn territorial dispute with neighboring Eritrea that in 2019, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize.
However, the changing political contours hardly went down well with the Tigrayan administration, which accused the new leadership of discrimination, marginalization from the strategic coalition, brow-beating, and sapping of federal fund allocation. The already strained situation deteriorated further when Tigray conducted its local elections in blatant defiance of the federal government’s COVID-19 directives. The federal government’s declaration of these elections as “illicit” followed armed attacks on the headquarters of the Ethiopian defense wing. In the recent turn of events, the imposition of a six-month emergency in the restive region has triggered the present military standoff. Since then, Tigray has remained hostile with multiple acts of aggression against Ethiopia and Eritrea, which the TPLF believes is aiding Ethiopian soldiers by allowing them to use its airports for attacking Tigray.
The demographics of Ethiopia are varied, comprising more than 80 different ethnic groups. The Oromo community makes up roughly 35% of the total Ethiopian population, the Amharas are 27% while the Tigrayans are a minority with a 6% share of the population. The genocidal ideology followed by the EPLF-TPLF-OLF axis aligns with that of the Nazis. Amharas are branded as outcasts and extremist threats, and such branding has continued even after the cessation of Eritrea from neighboring Ethiopia. Similar to the Soviet ideology, the militia-cum-local TPLF government of the Tigray region believes that the Ethiopian republic can achieve salvation only after the extermination of ethnic Amharas. The recent rocket attacks by the Tigrayan government in the Amhara dominated regions have further escalated ethnic tensions, that have been documented by international organizations including Amnesty International. The U.N. Office of Genocide Prevention has severely criticized targeted attacks against civilians, ethnically charged hate speech, and violent provocations.
Meanwhile, the federal government has been targeting the Tigrayan civilians. More than 150 suspected ‘operatives’ were detained and questioned by government officials for partaking in a TPLF-led conspiracy. Despite federal assertions claiming the arrests to be ‘ethnically diverse’, the unexplained high proportions of ethnic Tigrayan incarcerations suggesting ethnic targeting by heavy-handed federal forces, continues to remain a harrowing concern. Further, ethnic cleansing continues at the bureaucratic level too with African Union arbitrarily removing its Tigrayan security head over the Ethiopian defense minister’s concerns of disloyalty. In yet another instance of ethnic targeting, a UN security report claimed that Ethiopian police requested a list of Tigrayan staff at an office of the UN World Food Programme. The tensed political scenario and self-evident targeting of the ethnic population have catalyzed the political turmoil which has thrust the nation to the brink of a civil war.
Ever since the growing instability in the region, a major concern was the potential cross-border impact of the war in the Horn of Africa region. With the involvement of Eritrea now, the concerns seem more legitimate than ever. The prolonged ethnic strife has gravely endangered the stability of Somalia where Ethiopian counterinsurgency forces are battling jihadist al-Shabab terrorists, have been forced to withdraw. The UNHCR reported that thousands of refugees, had been crossing over the border and arriving in Sudan and many more are so anticipated as the conflict escalates. Such large scale migration would mean that Sudan may find itself inadvertently drawn into the war. With Ethiopia-Egypt relations being stressed and Sudan being an ally of Egypt, the conflict may potentially destabilize the Horn of Africa region. The fact that the USA and China have several strategic military bases in the Djibouti region and Russia has its naval facility in Sudan, would essentially mean that any military involvement of these regions would inevitably ensnarl the nuclear powers. This could be a disastrous development, for it would effectively ensure the transition from a regional conflict of dominance to a global threat of nuclear warfare.
While the UN Secretary-General António Guterres has emphasized on immediate de-escalation of tensions, hardly any measures to ensure the same have been taken. The foreign powers with a vested interest in the region, along with the international community, have vastly remained moot spectators. While it’s understandable that the world as a whole is in a severe economic and health crisis, still the implications of underestimating the tensions are too disastrous to be overlooked. It is all the more distressing to see that the last year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Ethiopian PM, Mr. Abiy Ahmed has rejected all international calls for de-escalation and vowed a “final and crucial” military offensive against the rebel troops, thus jeopardizing thousands of innocent civilian lives. Though any mediation attempts would essentially mean intervening with the internal matters of Ethiopia, judging by nature and consequence the matter has assumed a nature of global importance for it threatens the international political stability and most importantly, the humanitarian aspect of Ethiopian refugees.
The Security Council needs to intervene by ensuring the deployment of peace-keeping forces, for Ethiopia and Eritrea are both members of the United Nations. Russia and the USA which are potential allies of Sudan and Ethiopia respectively need to come forward and mediate a ceasefire agreement between the warring parties. Foremostly, the safety of civilians needs to be ensured. Any further negotiations that take place should ensure the contentment of the parties and an unbiased plan of resolution. It is high time that the international community works in a constructive way towards pacifying the existing conditions through peaceful negotiations.
Krati Gupta is a law student at the Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Punjab, India. Krati is interested in inter-disciplinary subject analysis and especially in international politics, business law, securities law, and competition law.
Raj Shekhar is a law student at the National University of Study and Research in Law, Ranchi, India. Raj is an experienced Legal Researcher and Policy Interventionist with a keen eye for detail. Raj is interested in international law, corporate law, and Indian Constitutional Law.
Suggested Citation: Krati Gupta and Raj Shekhar, Old Grudges, New Clashes: The Tigrayan Quandary, JURIST – Student Commentary, December 1, 2020, https://www.jurist.org/commentary/2020/12/gupta-shekhar-tigray-conflict/.
This article was prepared for publication by Vishwajeet Deshmukh, a JURIST staff editor. Please direct any questions or comments to him at commentary@jurist.org.
